Demonetisation anniversary – 1.5 million jobs lost in first quarter of 2017

CMIE reveals fall in employment by 1.5 million January –April 2017 period

It has been 12 months since demonetisation, there has been wide ranging data to analyse that there is continuing lack of employment opportunities for India’ s growing workforce. Along with the problem of bad loans, the issue of creating enough jobs remains the biggest challenge to the Indian government. According to CMIE data, the estimated total employment during January-April 2017 was 405 million compared to 406.5 million during the preceding four months, September-December 2016.

CMIE- Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy reveals that 1.5 million jobs were lost during January –April 2017. It is also seen that the figures of employment in the leading companies portray decline in the number of employment as against years before that. According to CMIE data, the estimated total employment during January-April 2017 was 405 million compared to 406.5 million during the preceding four months, September-December 2016.  

CMIE data also estimated that while the number of persons employed fell by 1.5 million during January-April 2017 period, the number of people who declared themselves unemployed fell much more — by 9.6 million.

Another source, Labour Bureau employment survey also reflect a sharp decline in jobs after the government banned old notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 on November 8 last year.

Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY) data analysis shows 30.67 lakh candidates had been trained and were undergoing training through the country out of which less that 10% attained employment, that is 2.9 lakh candidates received placement offers, according to official data with Ministry of Skill Development & Entrepreneurship.  

Job data for 121 companies — excluding IT and financial services sector — that are part of BSE 500, and for whom numbers were available for last three years, show a net aggregate decline in headcount for the next year.

For about 107 companies, there has been a net decline of 14,668 employees. At the end of March the numbers of employees were 684452 at the end of March 2015, it dropped to 677296 at the end of March 2016 and further dipped to 669784 at the end of March 2017.

Companies such as L&T saw a decline by 1,888 employees, Hindustan Lever-1453, Idea cellular-707, ACC-535, Tata Motor 534, Tata Steel 450, Hindalco 439 and Titan Industry 422 number of employees.

In the pharmaceutical and automobile sectors saw arise in trend. The biggest addition was seen in Abbott India that added a net of 3,127 employees during the year followed by Sun Pharmaceuticals, which added 2,769 employees. Vedanta added 2,489 employees during the year. In line with the rise in sales of cars and other automobiles, five leading automobile players Ashok Leyland, Maruti Suzuki India, Hero MotoCorp, Eicher Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra added a net of 3,142 employees during the year.

Labour Bureau’s Quarterly Employment Survey for October-December last year, as many as 1.52 lakh casual and 46,000 part-time jobs were lost in eight key sectors of the economy, despite an overall addition of 1.22 lakh workers during the quarter.

Eight key sectors — Manufacturing, Construction, Trade, Transport, Education, Health, Accommodation & Restaurants and IT/ BPO — was recorded at 32,000 jobs in July-September 2016 and 77,000 jobs in April-June 2016.

Fresh data for the subsequent quarters have not been released.

October-December 2016, the Quarterly Employment Survey which shows the peak demotization period that the maximum fall in casual jobs was in the manufacturing sector, 1.3 lakh, followed by IT/BPO sector at 20000. Again the decline in part- time workers was the highest in manufacturing sector.

However, there was a rise in manufacturing (83,000), trade (7,000), transport (1,000), IT/BPO sector (12,000), education (18,000) and health (2,000), according to the survey.
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